Note: All figures can be enlarged on the screen by clicking once on the figure. Closing the enlarged figure will bring you back to the presentation.
Please note that the text in this presentation has been added by the editor and is meant to supplement the slides.
PDF of presentation as delivered
Update on the Russian Trade Embargo
Norway and the EU were locked out by Russia which caused a huge loss in both volume and value.
The green colour shows Belarus increasing export to Russia. Belarus is a landlocked country so this is illegal but a loop of seafood transported from Europe to Belarus. Value of 300 Million USD.
Chile is number 1 now sourcing seafood to Russia. The Faroe Islands and Greenland are the only western countries exporting seafood to Russia (maybe because they are not members of NATO?) but both their volume has decreased.
Russia is heavily focusing on China but, at the same time exporting nearly the same amount to Europe as before even though Russia is not allowing EU exporting to Russia. “Sounds like a good deal for Russia”.
The losers here are Norway and the EU. The major beneficiary here is the Russia domestic industry.
Update on Brexit
As you all know Mr Johnson is pro-Brexit.
The EU and the UK won’t have the unilateral right to bring the backstop to an end.
This is what the negotiations are about. The EU wants to preserve the single market and the EU customs union. The compromise might be a Single Customs Territory between the EU and UK. But the three impossible trinities are impossible to combine.
These are the 2018 numbers where the white fish plays the main role in the trades between the countries and in both directions; 1.5 billion euros from EU to the UK and for 1.7 from the UK to EU.
UK’s main seafood exports go to other EU-countries. In light of how much the volume has decreased between 2017 and 2018 UK companies should get hurry to find new markets before Brexit.
The UK importers have begun to find other suppliers to shift into instead of the EU. The countries who benefit most are Iceland and Vietnam.
Here is the same story but from the EU respective. The risk for the EU isn’t as great but significant.
EU exporters to the UK are losing the most at the moment.
The trade from the UK to the EU and from the EU to the UK is declining even though the Brexit hasn’t happened yet.
Update on US-China Trade War
The most important here is that in May the US put 25% tariff on 200 billion trade from China and was going to put another 30% tariff in September, but it is suspended for now.
US and China are not relying much on each other.
But the US seafood industry isn’t critically dependent on the China market, but some companies and states will be impacted, but mostly the reprocessing industry.
It’s the same story from China respective. US seafood isn’t very important on the China market or is the US seafood market important for the exporters in China. Some companies and states will be impacted, but it is mostly for reprocessing.
If you look at the numbers for US exports to China, the products are dominated by the groundfish and salmon and mostly reprocessing who are exempt from tariffs.
China and Russia are clearly depending more and more on each other. At the same time, the US export to China is declining both in values and volumes.
The interesting thing here is that the three topmost (red) products are all exempt from the tariff. Clearly the companies are processioning already for what could happen in the future.
When looked at numbers of China export to the US, those numbers are much bigger than the US export to China.
The US top suppliers are Canada and China, both with slight declining numbers, mostly in the beneficiary for India, Chile and Vietnam.
It is expected that the declining numbers for the seafood exports from China to the US and vice versa will accelerate in the coming months.
Most of the Chinese companies will find new domestic markets. The main winners are in South-East Asia, such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.
This is the global seafood trade flow. Rabobank has the most traded protein in the world. Clearly what is happening is that we have trade embargoes across the board, trade wars between the US and the EU, problems between South Core and Japan and so on. This is something we will need to monitor constantly from now on.