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A gradual decline of the Cod’s biomass started 2001 which lasted until 2008, mainly driven by the reduction of quotas in Iceland. Then we see a sharp increase, mainly driven by increased quotas in the Barents Sea until 2013. These circumstances might have increased the market and been the catalyst for the strong prices for Cod today. 2013 started a gradual reduction of fishery again, driven be decreased quotas in the Barents Sea. When looked at the allocation of quotas of Cod 2016, 2017 and 2018 in Russia, Norway and Iceland we see a decline in the Barents Sea but some increase in Iceland which explains the increased prices for Cod for that period of time.
Saithe has been stable for the last few years, but Haddock is showing a biomass decline.
Prices for the Atlantic Cod and Haddock has been in slow rising, even at the time when there was a sharp supply decreasing 2013. Monthly export prices are still increasing. The trend prices for Saithe are in the opposite direction. As a sample of structural change, it is interesting to see that Norwegian supply, which has normally been ample in early winter months until April/May has been much more stable than in recent years and therefor been stabling or even increasing the prices.
Russia is going through an investment revolution in terms of technology investments in the fishing industry. Their processing industry will be one of the best equipped in the world or even the best. That will be more value-added products from Russia and probably less supply of double frozen Cod on the markets.
Spain is the number one market for Icelandic Cod again. Strong prices and going even stronger this year. Prices will be more staple in the near future.
A similar trend is on the French market. Prices are moving up this year as well on the French market.