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Please note that the text in this presentation has been added by the editor and is meant to supplement the slides.
Click here to view handouts for supply presented at the 2018 Forum:
HANDOUT FOR SUPPLY TRENDS
Click here to view handouts for utilization and product flow:
HANDOUT FOR DISPOSITION AND MARKET FLOW
The supply overview describes the world’s total fisheries production, including marine capture fisheries (wild catch) and farmed supplies. It shows recent trends and prospects for the world’s most important groundfish supply. The groundfish prospects are covered by species, areas and countries. The data is based on FAO statistics up to 2017, as well as reports from Forum panellists for 2018 and their prognosis for 2019–2020. The overview also describes recent trends and prospects for the major farmed finfish and touches briefly on the supply of major flatfish.
The information for utilization and market flow collected by Groundfish Forum panellists for this overview is based on catch data, utilization data by product form, and market data for the products. Import and export data were collected from government officials, internet databases and the industry directly. Some areas and species have reliable data but the data of others are incomplete and should be regarded as estimates.
The global supply and utilization data were provided by experts and Groundfish Forum participants worldwide. The following Forum participants and other colleagues provided input for the overview:
Todd Clark, Endeavor Seafood; Alda Möller, Groundfish Forum; Kristjan Hjaltason, Norebo, Europe; Ingrid K. Pettersen, Norw. Seafood Council; Durita í Grótinum, JFK, Faroes; Bundesverband Fischindustrie, Germany; Lars Nielsen, Royal Greenland; Martin Sullivan, Ocean Choice; David Jiang, Unibond; Konrad Geldenhuys, Sea Harvest; Francois Olivier, Hangana; Alex Ocampo/Mariano Mansilla, Seaman Int.; Mario Inostroza, Emdepes; Paul Snow, High Liner Foods; Keith Decker, Blue Harvest Fisheries; Chris Pedersen, Mascato Asia; Hoa Phan, Vinh Hoan; Pierre Marquian, St. Monica, Peru; Clement Chia, Sanford; Andrey Buzin, Russian Fishery; Steve Spencer, Pacific Seafood; Dan Waldeck, Pacific Whiting Conservation Coop; Torunn Halhjem, Trident Seafoods; Rasmus Soerensen, American Seafood; Jim Ianelli, AFSC; Randy Rhodes, Harvest Select; Ragnar Nystoyl, Kontali; Paul Aandahl,; Norw. Seafood Council; Daniel Montoya, Blumar; Tae Wang, Don Wong Fisheries, Korea; Y. Sakurai, Nissui; H. Takanori, Fish. Research Council, Japan; Brandur Jacobsen, Faroe Origin; Marine Research Institute, Iceland; Frank Temme, Pacific Rim.
The support of all these people is much appreciated. Their help has been instrumental in putting together this overview for the current supply and utilization in the groundfish industry.
Global Fisheries Production
The figure shows the world’s total production in 2000–2017, as reported in FAO fisheries statistics. There were 173 metric tonnes (MT) of global fisheries production in 2017, a total of a 4,1% increase between years.
Capture has a 54% share in this production while aquaculture has 46%. However, farmed seafood production is clearly increasing, while the capture fisheries supply has been stable. In 2017, aquaculture production counted for 80 million MT while capture production was 93 million MT.
Together, China, India and Indonesia contribute around 50% of the global production.
Whitefish (shown in the light blue column) is only about 5% of the global production. The figure shows the recent landings of whitefish as a proportion of the world’s total supply. The whitefish figure includes a few more species than discussed in the Forum.
This figure shows a time series of FAO data for production of the groundfish species covered by the Forum. The earliest year shown is 1998. Most recent data show annual production of 7.6 million MT.
GROUNDFISH OVERVIEW
The overview will cover each global area in turn, starting with North Atlantic supply (Atlantic Cod, Haddock, Saithe & Redfish), followed by the North Pacific resources, Hakes and Hoki from the southern hemisphere and finally aquaculture developments.
Explanation of work on utilization and product flow
The figure shows the organization of the information collected. The total catch of each resource was first divided into utilization (disposition) as fresh, frozen or salted fish. Utilization for freezing was then further divided into Whole or H&G fish, Fillets and blocks, and Surimi.
The markets for the various frozen products were divided into:
- The European market,
- The North American market,
- The Asian market,
- The domestic market, where appropriate, and
- Other markets.
ATLANTIC COD
The production of Atlantic Cod was estimated to be around 1.2 million MT in 2018, down 7% from the year before. All numbers in the light blue bar are estimated numbers in the following slides.
The product flow in chief markets for single frozen blocks and fillets is shown as the 2009–2018 time series based on product weight. The market for fillets and blocks produced at source is dominated by in Europe with a 91% market share.
The figure shows the 2009–2018 time series for the flow of H&G products as reported by panellists through the years. H&G numbers are down because of changes in catches. Europe currently has the lead and it is predicted to continue to do so.
EU data shows that close to 54,000 MT of Atlantic cod fillets and blocks were imported from China in 2018 as reprocessed products. It is estimated that little less than 13,000 MT of reprocessed Atlantic cod products were imported to the US from China last year.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for single and double frozen Atlantic cod fillet products. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases. The figure also shows the estimated share of industrial blocks in fillet products. The estimates of industrial blocs remain unchanged in 2018, around 10%.
Forum members have reported that the total Atlantic cod supply is expected to be close to 1.13 million MT this year. The panellists expect a continued decline in the supply of the Atlantic cod, driven primarily by Norway and Russia. Soma stability can be expected in the Barents Sea, even though there is a recommendation for a 5% production increase.
HADDOCK
The figure shows that the total haddock supply was estimated by panellists to have been 316,000 MT last year, down by 6.5% from the year before. The time series for haddock spans 19 years and 10 are shown.
The product flow in chief markets for single frozen blocks and fillets is shown as the 2009–2018 time series. Production of fillets and blocks has followed trends in total landings. Europe and Russia are up 20% from the year 2017.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for single and double frozen haddock fillet products. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases. The figure also shows the estimated share of industrial blocks in fillet products.
Forum members have reported that the total haddock supply is expected to decrease to 299,000 MT this year, led by Norway and Russia. However, a rebound is expected in 2020, with an increase in the Barents Sea by 25%.
SAITHE (ATLANTIC POLLOCK)
The figure shows that the total saithe supply was estimated by panellists to have been 365,000 MT last year, in increase by 12.6% year to year.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for single and double frozen saithe fillet products. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases.
Forum members have reported that the total Saithe supply is expected to be around 350,000 MT this year. In 2020, an increase in the supply of Atlantic Saithe can be expected in all countries other than Iceland.
REDFISH
The figure shows that the total Redfish supply was estimated by panellists to have been 179,000 MT last year. The supply of North Atlantic Redfish has reached a 10-year high.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for whole and headed Redfish. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases. The balance between Europe and Asia is almost even, but for the first time, the numbers from Europe now include estimated numbers from Russia. Without the numbers from Russia, the share of Europe would be around 20,000 tonnes.
Forum members have reported that the total Redfish supply is expected to be close to 179,000 MT this year and a little higher in 2020. An increase is expected from Canada in the year 2020.
Pacific Redfish, S. alutus, is a small stock, fished by the US and Canada. Catches have increased in recent years.
NORTH PACIFIC SUPPLY
ALASKA POLLOCK
The figure shows that the total Alaska Pollock supply was estimated by panellists to have been close to 3.4 million MT last year, a small decline of 2.5% from 2017.
The time series for product flow of single frozen blocks and fillets shows the relative strength of the chief markets. In 2018, exports to the European market were 60% of the total, while the domestic market of North America had 20% and Asia and Russia accounted for an estimated 20%. New markets for single frozen in Asia and Russia are developing, and now matching the size of the N-American market.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for Pollock fillet blocks and other fillet products. The largest market by far is western Europe. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases.
H&G production has increased in recent years and products have been mostly sold to Asia, either for reprocessing in China or for the markets of China and S-Korea. In 2018 it is estimated that about 83% of products were shipped to or originated in Asia, while the Russian domestic market had 14% and 3% were shipped to Europe. It is estimated that the Russian market has declined largely because it is moving further to single frozen blocks. However, it can be estimated that the European market will grow bigger in the coming years.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for the whole round and H&G pollock products. Like in previous years, the largest market by far is China. All figures in the map are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases.
The figure shows the time series for Pollock in EU and US imports in 2009 – 2018. Trade statistics for the EU and US show that 148,000 MT of pollock fillets and blocks were imported to the EU in 2018 from China, and 29,300 MT to the US. For the last ten years, the market demand in Europe has declined by around 15%. The demand for the US market has also fallen in recent years. The total demand in the last decade has fallen around 70%.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for Pollock fillet blocks and other fillet products. The largest market by far is Western Europe.
The supply of Alaska Pollock should be stable in 2019 and 2020. Last year, the forecast showed a decline in supply but that has not yet materialized.
PACIFIC COD
In 2018, the supply of Pacific Cod declined by 13% from the year before. After a few years of small decline, the year 2018 clearly represents an exhilaration of that declining trend.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for Pacific Cod H&G products. As before, the largest market is in China, where products are mostly used for reprocessing. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for Pacific Cod fillet products. As before, the largest market is in the US, followed by W-Europe. All figures are based on product weight as reported directly by panellists or calculated from statistical databases.
Forum panellists have reported that the total Pacific Cod landings are expected to be close to 387,000 MT this year but probably closer to 365,000 MT in 2020. A decline can be expected in the supply of Pacific Cod in the next few years. However, there is a reason to mention specifically the Gulf of Alaska and a stock that could trigger a rebuilding plan.
The world map shows the destination of all Cod fillet/block products in 2018. Europe and North America are the only markets. Europe has a 72% share of Cod fillets products.
The figure shows that the total Hake supply was estimated by panellists to have been close to 1.2 million MT in 2018, a decline of 6% from the year before.
It is important to note that Hake is not a single entity, it is a diverse range of species and geography
The world map shows the 2018 markets for H&G Hake products. The largest market by far is Europe.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for Hake fillet products. The largest market is in Europe.
Forum members have reported that the total Cape Hake landings are expected to be close to 300,000 MT this year and in 2019. A slight growth can be expected in the supply of Cape Hake in the coming years, mainly driven by South Africa.
Forum members have reported that the total South American Hake landings are expected to be close to 406,000 MT this year and next year.
The Pacific Hake counts for around 30-35% of all Hake produced in the world. Forum members have reported that North Pacific Hake landings are expected to be close to 440,000 MT this year and similar next year.
The figure sums up the recent and forecasted total Hake supply, which is expected to be close to 1.27 million MT in 2019 and 1.3 million MT in 2020.
HOKI
The world map shows the 2018 markets for Hoki fillet products. The largest market is in Europe.
Forum members have reported that Hoki landings are expected to be close to 174,000 MT this year. The decline of supply of Hoki is expected to continue, driven mainly by New Zealand.
Southern blue whiting is fished in small quantities, chiefly in the South Pacific. Landings have decreased in recent years and are estimated to be close to 40,000 MT this year and similar next year. The resource is utilized about equally for production of H&G products and Surimi.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for all wild whitefish fillet products, both single frozen and double frozen. The largest market is in Europe, 70% of the total market, while the North American market accounts for 18%.
SUMMARY
The summary for the catch development of the major groundfish species is shown as landings reported to FAO from 1998 to 2017 and the Groundfish Forum panellists’ reports and estimates for 2018–2020. Overall, the supply showed a marked downward trend in the late 1990s. In 2000–2006 there appeared to be stability in supply but a downward trend was seen in 2007–2009. Recovery has been observed since. The total supply of groundfish is presently at 7.6 million MT. The average supply of all species is 6.9 million MT over the last 20 years.
Landings for major species are expected to decline from 2017-2018. It is important to note that the decline comes for a variety of places, there are no new massive reductions that are leading to this decline.
FLATFISH
The ICES guidance calls for 1.1 million MT, so in 2019 we are expecting to be a little bit above that but closer to it in 2020.
AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENTS
The 2000–2017 time series for total fisheries production shows clearly that the increase in global fisheries in this period has been mostly due to developments in aquaculture. Sustained long-time growth in aquaculture can be expected. In the aggregated growth we do not see a step backwards. Some individual producers might decline in growth at different times, but as a larger category, it can grow as a whole going forward.
Carp, Salmon, Trout, Tilapia and Catfish, including Pangasius species, are the major farmed finfish groups. Carp, Tilapia and Catfish are farmed inland. Total farming in 2017 was reported at 41 million MT.
FARMED ATLANTIC SALMON
Farmed Atlantic Salmon supply was estimated by panellists to have been almost 2.35 million MT in 2018.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for fresh whole Atlantic Salmon products. The largest market by far is in Europe.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for fresh Atlantic Salmon fillet products. The largest market is in North America.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for frozen whole Atlantic Salmon products. The largest market is in now in Europe but was previously in Asia.
The world map shows the 2018 markets for frozen Atlantic Salmon fillet products. The main markets are in Europe and North America.
Forum members expect the total production of farmed Atlantic Salmon to be close to 2.5 million MT this year. It should be noted that we can expect growth in all regions of the world in the coming years, even though Norway and Chile dominate this sector. If this development continues at the same phase, we could be looking at doubling this resource in about 12> years.
The growth of the farmed Tilapia supply is around 5% year to year in 2017. Nile Tilapia is the predominant Tilapia species in aquaculture and is farmed in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. An increasing proportion of the supply enters international trade.
Catfish is the generic name for a great variety of species that are farmed chiefly in the US and various Asian countries. In the US, farm-raised catfish consists of Ictalurus species, mainly channel Catfish. Channel Catfish is also farmed in China. Vietnam-farmed Catfish belong to the Pangasius family.